I want to break down my AL Central predictions, but first, I wanted to note - Sports Illustrated' web site had a bunch of features about Michael Jordan's attempt at baseball in 1994, and no matter how many times I think about it's still mind-blowing. I can't imagine another athelete doing the same thing before, or since. One at the absolute top of his sports retiring - well, that's been done - Jim Brown did it, Sandy Koufax (though for him it was barely by choice) did it, Barry Sanders more or less did, along with a small number of others I'm sure. But not only retiring, but then unretiring to take on a completely different sport they hadn't played since high school - that's unheard of, almost surreal looking back at it. Imagine Kobe Bryant retiring and deciding he wants to play soccer instead. Tom Glavine, less of a star, but who at least was a huge hockey prospect, retiring after his Cy Young to return to the ice. Tiger Woods retiring from golf and deciding his future is in tennis. And then beyond switching sports, is going from the center of the universe to a podunk town in Alabama (well Birmingham has 200,000 people, but I mean, compared to Chicago) and being completely mediocre at the sport you choose to play.

What makes this story even more amazing is one of the great sports unsubstantiated rumors surrounding it - the idea that this was not a voluntary decision by Michael, but rather was a forced suspecion by NBA commissioner David Stern due to Jordan's gambling problems. Of course this is both probably not true, and if it is it's unlikely we'll know for sure - there's yet to be a smoking gun, but all the pieces are there. Jordan lost lots of money at golf to a lot of shady characters.

There is simply no other example of someone leaving a sport they are on top of for another I can think of in sports - the closest recent example in pop culture which is not really close at all is, say, Joaquin Phoenix leaving acting to attempt a musical career. The only real comparable part though is Joaquin's medicore music career - obviously, while a successful actor, he was not on Michael's level - more like Terrell Brandon retiring to play baseball or something. Alas, all we can do is enjoy the moment, and as a Knicks fan who has always despised Michael Jordan to the core, and taken perverse pleasure at moments that do not deserve it (Jordan's gambling problems, his divorce) where Jordan simply didn't have what it took. Too bad he came right back and won 3 more championships.

Okay, an attempt at justifying my MLB record predictions. We start in the AL. Here goes.

AL East:

Okay, well we know this much - the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays are the class of the AL East, and very possibly the best three teams in baseball. All three have gotten better over the offseason.

The Yankees, who as we all know, didn't make thep layoffs for the first time since the strike in 1994, took advantage of contracts coming off the books (Giambi, Mussina) and picked up arguably the two best pitchers on the market, CC Sabathia (who was inarguably the best pitcher on the market) and AJ Burnett and the best hitter on the market in Mark Teixeira. That adds up to a hell of a lot of new wins, and their rotation and lineup are extremely strong. The only problems are a lack of a center fielder - Brett Gardner is pretty weak, most likely, but in the middle of the stacked lineup, likely something they can with live, and really, injuries - A-Rod out for a couple of months will hurt, and, while injuries can wreck any team's season, particularly AJ Burnett has been hurt, and some of the Yankees position players are older and have been injured in years past - Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada. Some are worried about bullpen outside of Mariano Rivera, but while it may not be the best in baseball I don't think it will lose them too many games. I would have given them more than 93 wins, except that they play in this beast of a division.

The Red Sox of course I put ahead of them, because I think their core is more solid and they have less potential injury issues (mainly Beckett, though he's been mostly healthy during his time in Boston and JD Drew). They will likely suffer some downward regression from Kevin Youkilis, but Josh Beckett's ERA should be way down, as his peripherals were solid last year, and they have the deepest potential pool for reserve starting pitchers in case of injury. The Red Sox made smart low risk acquisitions of Brad Penny, Rocco Baldelli and John Smoltz. They will need Lester to at least come close to repeating last years performance, as it may be tough for him to top it, and hopefully to get some production out of their shortstop position, be it from Juilo Lugo or Jed Lowrie. That said, I still think they're the strongest team in the AL East, and in the majors.

The Rays have done nothing but improve over last year's team, albeit less dramatically than the Yankees. Pat Burrell was a nice acquisition at DH, and they should be the beneficiaries of a at least nearly full season of David Price, and the realistic potential for an improved season (not that he was bad last year, but with more power) from BJ Upton. I have them on the outside looking in, but it's definitely a crapshoot.

It's hard to think of a way the Blue Jays will not fall back from last year. Sure, they underperformed their Pytagorean record dramatically, but they're losing over 450 innings from their excellent pitching staff with AJ Burnett gone to the Yanks, and Shawn Marcum and Dusty McGowan injured. Their offense should be a little improved with full years from youngsters Adam Lind and Travis Snider, but it's tough to see them contending in this loaded division.

The Orioles actually have hope - which for them is a great thing, but I don't see it translating to wins just yet. They have a great chance at putting together a decent offense - Nick Markakis has become a legitimate star, and Adam Jones could be that as well. Oh, and they have the best offensive prospect in baseball in catcher Matt Weiters, who baseball prospectus is predicting to somehow be one of the best hitters in baseball this year. That said, their pitching is nowhere to be found, and their starting pitching is all extremely questionable outside of Jeremy Guthrie. They have two big pitching prospects waiting in the wings in Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz, but they probably won't have much impact until 2010.

Time to break out the ol' baseball records selections before the season starts:

AL

Boston Red Sox 96-66
New York Yankees 93-69
Tampa Bay Rays 91-71
Toronto Blue Jays 74-88
Baltimore Orioles 70-92

Central:

Cleveland Indians 87-75
Minnesota Twins 83-79
Chicago White Sox 80-82
Detroit Tigers 80-82
Kansas City Royals 75-87

West:

Oakland As 85-77
Anaheim Angels 84-78
Seattle Mariners 73-89
Texas Rangers 75-87

NL

New York Mets 92-70
Philadelphia Phillies – 90-72
Atlanta Braves 87-75
Florida Marins 70-92
Washington Nationls 68-94

Central

Cubs 98-64
Brewers 90-72
Cardinals 83-79
Reds 76-86
Astros 71-91
Pirates 69-93

West

LA Dodgers 88-74
Arizona Diamondbacks 85-77
San Francisco Giants 80-82
Colorado Rockies 74-88
Padres 62-100

Analysis later, but I wanted to put 'em in before the season gets underway. How off will I be?

Where would I be without commercial posts? Nowhere, that's where. This one's a couple months old, but I still can't get over my bizarre obsession with it.




The “main character,” the father/husband walks in to the house and declares that the family can now talk to their friends and family as much as they want, to which his wife responds, “like vivian” and the husband replies in the affirmative. Then the commercial gets a little stranger. (Well, already strange is the man's choice of dress. For what job could the dress code possibly be wearing an ugly brown sport coat, shirt and tie, and jeans? Or does he just leave the house that way casually? Odd, either way.) The middle son suggests they could talk to “skinny pete.” Who is this “Skinny Pete” character? Some sort of hoodlum? Who has a friend named skinny pete? And why is he so skinny anyway? Maybe he should eat more. No one reacts, and subsequently the youngest son suggests the father could call the woman he's always staring at in the boy's soccer practice, creating a classic commercial awkward moment, for which the father stares dumfounded for about half a second. The daughter then chimes in, asserting she could now call “derek” who her father refers to as “derek with the mustang and the mustache,” and tells her that there's a no dereks with mustaches clause in the fine print. The two particularly noteworthy things here, aside from just the bizarre combination of mustache and mustang are one, that when he tells her about the clause she steps forward and leans into him, as if she actually believes such a clause could exist and she wants to read it for herself and two, that the father calls his daughter “dude.” Who does that? Isn't that weird? I feel like it would be a little weird maybe to call your son dude, but your daughter? What a drag.

I can't explain it. There's nothing that jumps out about this commercial. I just like it.

I follow a lot of sports, and I like a lot of teams. Yet amongst these sports, my fandom of college basketball is unique in some ways. In fact, two ways in particular that I can think of at the moment. First, my following of college basketball as a sport is more predicated on the success of my favorite team, Syracuse, than any other sport. If Syracuse is having a down year, my following will slack off, and after a bad Syracuse loss I sometimes will avoid reading about college basketball for a few days. With regard to baseball, on the other hand, even if the Mets are having a lost year, I'll play close attention to the goings on in baseball. Second, for as long as I can remember, I am the only Syracuse fan I know. Almost everyone I know are Mets fans, and I know plenty of Knicks fans and Rangers fans, and even a couple of Bills fans, but no other fans of the Orange. In a way, I think I take the team's performance more personally than I do the success or failure of my other teams. It's almost if - when the Mets fail, they're speaking to all the fans I know, myself included - we can comisserate together, complain about the player acquistion and the poor defense, and everything else, and pretty much share and spread out out bitter feelings.

Syracuse losses, on the other hand, are mine alone. I have to deal internally with the suffering. Of course, if you're not a sports fan, suffering sounds like a ridiculous overstatement for feelings based on something that you have absolutely no control over. And it's true, it is ridiculous. And by no means am I comparing to real suffering of poverty and hunger and disease. But it is suffering, be it of a much lesser, and different degree. After a loss, I don't want to talk about it, or want to find another subject to talk about, like a husband who doesn't want to talk about a bad day at work. It's difficult and it's frustrating and by now I'm probably talking about all sports but it really is inherently irrational to stake such a significant amount of your mood on something over which you have no control. This is veering on pop psychology, but it's probably something about being part of something, and you know, can't get the joys of victory without suffering the agonies of defeat. That, and each sport has their own individual charms, but that's something else entirely.

Anyway, to sum up, I'm pretty bummed that 'Cuse lost, and more over got killed by Oklahoma. Let's hope Johnny Flynn comes back next year. Go Big East anyway.

Finally caught up on Friday Night Lights - all three seasons and 50 episodes. Following, some comments.




- first off, general things - I like it a lot, it's a good show - essentially a soft relatively realistic for TV primetime soap with football, with really good characters, and attempting to make everyone human - and by the time I got about halfway through every season, I wanted to power through the rest which is always a good sign - it's not the best show ever but it's good and I hope it comes back for the two seasons at least NBC is talking about

- no one is completely in the wrong on the show as a general rule - for example, one coach who is forced to share quarters with Dillon, due to who his school being destroyed in a tornado seems like a total jackass, until just before you see him for the last time he tells Coach Taylor that his wife has cancer - this show would never let you get away having unequivocal hate towards any character

- most ridiculous subplot is about Landry murdering Tyra's rapist. FNL, unlike, say, the Wire, is TV left and right, no doubt about it but usually they stay within the bounds of fairly normal human drama - boy-girl troubles, school problems, parenting issues - throwing in a murder was way beyond anything they had thrown in before, and after - totally out of place - like the reverse of if Jack Bauer tried to start cracking jokes during 24 - the whole plotline just felt like the writers had stretched the bounds of the universe in which the show takes place

- the other most obvious TV thing is of course, that during every game, the player who seems to have been the subject of the episode seems to be the one making the plays - this may be the wrong place to do this as I don't want to insult FNL as much as credit a show like The Wire, but if FNL was The Wire, we would know far more players' names no matter how important characters they were, and what happened in the games would have nothing to do with the rest of the episodes - it's fine, it's not a big deal, I just wanted to make a point out of it

- the most ridiculous occasional character is the meth dealer who Tim Riggins lives with for a couple episodes - the hunting and driving conversations between the two of them, including the Patrick Swayze lovefest are some of the most utterly surreal scenes in the entire series and just made me feel weird and confused while watching

- myself having an insane obsession with opening credits related comments: third seasons, no more smash and street - makes sense, they're only in a couple of episodes - why not replace them with Buddy Garrity (Brad Leland) and JD McCoy (Jeremy Sumpter) Both are just about main characters in the third season, getting as much screen time as anyone else. Buddy has really moved above the other recurring characters, like Matt's grandma and Billy Riggins in terms of prominence and JD McCoy is a way to shepherd the show into a new era after the majority of the cast graduates high school (though somehow finds their way back in Dillon, maybe?)

- one thing probably both liberating to the writers and highly unsatisfying to the viewers is that this high school show, unlike most high school shows (ie. Buffy) covers just the fall rather than the whole school year, and thus huge events can happen in the second half of the year that are unexplained, as seems to happen between the 2nd and 3rd seasons. ps. I wrote this before I realized there was an episode 13 of the 3rd season, which I then watched, and is sort of a "everything stays the same for five months" until things start happening again.

- it's kind of ridiculous to anyone watching the show that Lyla, Tyra and Tim Riggins were sophomores in the first season - they had the run of the school, everyone knew who they were, and the general impression I got is that, while watching the first season, they were all seasons and maybe at absolute reach, juniors - my guess and this is based on absolutely nothing is that they were not designed to be sophomores but were changed to them later on to keep them longer when the show got extended

- one nice thing FNL does is show a whole range of functional families - it sounds silly, but while there is plenty of hackneyed TV encounters and dialogue on the show, the relationships within the different family units, from the Taylors, to the Riggins, and Saracens, Collettes, and the rest really do seem authentic, and that is a credit to the show - one of the shows strongest traits I think

- the series also should have been adding characters each year so that when characters graduated they'd be easily replaceable if necessary rather than having to worry about finding a way to keep them in Dillon

Well that's all for now - I probably have a lot more thoughts, but if I wait for all of them, I'll never put this up

Like the Edwin Hawkins Singers said, Oh Happy Day - I finally have a new computer (well, they didn't say the new computer part). Anyway, it's about fucking time, and I am thrilled about it, though I am still working on getting all my stuff set up the way I like it and attempting to figure out Vista.

How else to make the first post on a new computer, than about commercials.

Just like there's a special place in the universe for things they shouldn't be funny, but are, there's a special place for things that should be funny but just aren't.



I like Conan O'Brien. He's a funny guy. I like H. Jon Benjamin (his agent). He voices McGurk, the best character in Home Movies, and is generally a pretty funny guy. I saw them and I wanted it to be funny, I wanted to laugh. It's meta, which of course could be good or bad; Conan doing a commercial about doing a Bud Light commercial in Sweden.

I wish I could just say it's not funny because it's a bud light commercial, but that would be too easy. Worse products (I know, there aren't many) have had better commercials before (for example, I do not like Subway, but am mesmorized by the original five dollar foot long commercials (the ones with Godzilla and the Japanese news reporter and such, not the new garbage ones with people dancing in a subway store)).

Someone I talked to suggested it's possible that it's not funny because Conan is so self-depricating, and doesn't take himself seriously - maybe that it would work better if Conan was replaced by someone whose image makes you think they were be more outraged by the in-commercial commercial being aired in America. While that's a possibility, I don't think that's it. Another thought is that the foreign commercial idea is just outdated - the audience for this commercial is familiar with weird foreign commercials - and Conan's commercial is not suffieicently ridiculous based on what we've already seen to be funny.

While these may play a role, I don't think any of these explanations really cover it all. The creators of the commercial have simply accomplished the moderately difficult - making funny people, and an inherently funny situation not funny, just weird. It's almost like it's an ad made by a firm attempting to act like someone trying to start a youtube phenonemon but not really understanding how it works, or what's funny about them. Alas, an opportunity lost, for both Conan, to make a funny commercial, and for Bud Light to rebound from their absolutely beyond awful drinkability campaign.