Okay, I'll actually get to my AL All-star team, admittedly a few days after the all-star game, but no worries there.

First, though the terrifying curse of the Gillette commercial.



The commercial features great-of-all-time candidates at their respective sports Tiger Woods and Roger Federer and excellent-and-great-but-not-inner-circle-great Thierry Henry, all waxing on their priority of focusing on the current rather than the past. The Sports Illustrated cover of shaving commercials, perhaps, Gillette commercials the future will indicate which athletes are about to take a fall.

First, possibly cheating, is the fact that Thierry Henry had already suffered the "curse" prior to the commercial even being aired, or likely produced. Sure, Henry is still an excellent player, and last year led Barca in goals with 19, but in his heyday Henry was captain of Arsenal, and more impressively was back-to-back runner up for FIFA World Player of the Year in 2003 and 2004, as back as runner up for European Football Player of the Year in 2003 and third in 2006. So, in a lot of ways Henry had already past his peak when the commercials started airing sure. Still, the commercial managed to jinx him to an end of his four year (2003-2006) stranglehold on French Player of the Year, which he ceded in 2007 to Frank Ribery.

Next, Roger Federer fresh off his Gillette apperance which cites his 2006 Wimbledon title gets crushed in the French Open final by Rafael Nadal and loses his five year (2003-2007) stranglehold on Wimbledon, losing to Nadal in five sets. Some would say he's getting older, he's lost a step, or that Nadal has gotten better, or that simply this was a battle of equals and could either way, and Federer will be back with avengence. Me? Simply curse of Gillette - easy explanation - doesn't mean his career is done, but can never be at the top again (maybe only until he stops maybe Gillette commercials? this part remains unclear as of yet). Hubris! Shouldn't just be living for today - should enjoy your past! (Maybe?).

So does that mean Tiger Woods is next? Well, he hasn't been stricken yet, unless the injury counts, or there will be some complications we don't know about. Frankly, I think this one is unlikely to pan out, but the commercial knows all, so we'll see.



There's also been a new commercial in which Thierry, whose on-field performance, I suppose has fallen off enough that he's been kicked out, has been replaced by Derek Jeter, who has so far responded by having a 100 OPS+ this season so far, which would be his worst OPS+, well, ever (not including 48 ABs in 1995) and his worst both OBP and SLG ever. Frankly, if I were him I'd call my agent and return Gillette's dirty money.





Also looking into athletes and politics can often be a silly enterprise - because, particularly in baseball especially I know the vast majority will probably be conservative, and because it can kind or ruin your love for your favorite players if you know where they stand, while on the other hand it shouldn't matter what someone's politics are to appreciate their athletic achievement. Still, if it's a coin flip, just as I'll generally side with someone who is democratic (as well as someone's whose lefty in the literal and not political sense) so now apparently I can support Shawn Marion, Gabe Kapler, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino. So now I must take back anything bad I've ever said about Jimmy Rollins. He is now the greatest shortstop ever to play the game. (Almost wrote "not" instead of "now" - letting my old ways get the best of me.)



Please don't hate me the zero conservatives that read this.

My All Stars

Well, every year the fans, players and managers combine to create a roster of NL and AL all-stars, many of which are deserving, a few of which are not. Since I clearly know more than all of them, it would be a disservice if I did not create my own all-star team, following the rules of having every team represented in the 32-man roster.

We'll start with the NL, and go by position.

First Baseman:

Starting will be Lance Berkman, having a career season, but who has been criminally underrated for years - having the third highest OPS out of anybody over the past five years, behind just Albert Pujols (who we'll see shortly) and David Ortiz. Plus he's the less common switch hitter who throws lefty, and gets extra props for that. Oh yeah, and he's sporting a .443 OBP, a .653 SLG all while stealing a career high 15 bags, and getting caught only twice.

Backing him up will be Albert Pujols, who has a fine chance of residing in the inner circle of Hall of Famers by the time his career is over, likely in at the very least the top 3 1Bs of all time, along with the Iron Horse and Jimmie Foxx. This season, although briefly on the DL, has been par for the course, racking up a career high .466 OBP.

Adrian Gonzalez will represent San Diego in the game, even though he's tried to get out of it with a .519 OPS in July, his first three months were excellent enough to warrant a trip, and Jake Peavy was injured just too much to make him the pick.

Second Base:

Well, for most of the year this would have been Chase Utley, and he's certainly still having a fine season (see shortly below). But the man taking over for him is none other than former Rule V draft pick, Dan Uggla. Uggla, if he keeps up his insane .605 SLG, will have the highest SLG for a second baseman since Rogers Hornsby did it a million times in the 1920s. Just for kicks, Uggla has had a career high .374 OBP going into the break as well.

The aforementioned Utley is a more than adequate backup - in fact his .582 SLG would be the 5th highest for a second baseman since 1900, if we leave out greatest-hitting-2nd-baseman of all time Rogers Hornsby. Yeah, I think even with a slowdown to a .296 OBP in July, that still earns you an all-star berth.

Shortstop:

Dan Uggla teams up with his double play partner, Hanley Ramirez, who if he continues his combination of high average/some walks/lots of power/lots of speed could be the best shortstop well, since A-Rod was a shortstop, but that essentially means the best player in the game. He dwarfs any other shortstop this year with an 153 OPS+ - the next highest is Jose Reyes and his 123.

Oh, well, yes, the backup in a very weak year for shortstops across the league is Jose Reyes, who has really put himself together since the end of April and is on pace to have the best year of his career, starting to validate the hype he came into the majors with - though for some reason the same people who were infatuated with his talent a few years ago when he underachieved, and now knocking him now that he's achieving, perhaps leading to his bizarre exclusion from the actual all-star team. In the arbitrary statitistics department, he's the first person to go into the all-star break with at least 20 2Bs, 10 3Bs, 10 HRs, and 30 SBs.

Third Baseman:

Another position we have a little bit of depth at. The first choice is clear as much as it pains me as a Met fan to say - Larry Wayne Chipper Jones. I still think his quest for .400 is over, but his .376 BA is nothing to shake a stick at - it would be the fifth highest since 1970. Partnering this with 56 walks for a sick .472 OBP is pretty impressive as well along with an over .600 SLG. One doesn't see many career years at age 36.

Backing him up is David Wright (the backups could be in any order as their worthiness seems to switch off literally day to day). The Mets star is having another strong year with 17 HRs so far and a .380 OBP - the major difference between this year and last is simply the forty points of batting average he's missing. In more arbitrary stats department, David is having the fifth best first five years, by OPS+ of third baseman in the last 50 years behind such Hall of Famers as Mike Schmidt and Wade Boggs, possible future Hallers as Miguel Cabrera and should-be Haller Dick Allen (who didn't play much third after his first five years anyway)

Second backup is Aramis Ramirez, clocking in with a strong .386 OBP and .515 SLG in the slightly more hitter friendly friendly confines of Wrigley.

Outfield:

Well, I'll take two corner OFs and a center in my starters.

I'll start with the biggest snub on the real all star team, the Phillies' Pat Burrell. Burrell, the first overall pick in the 1998 amateur draft has spent most of his career being a poor man's Adam Dunn (and that's not a bad thing) and this year has surpassed the master with a .404 OBP and 23 dingers. I'm not really sure what else he has to do to get invited to the game.

In the other corner is last year's MVP runner up Matt Holliday. Although his .421 OBP and .553 SLG are clearly Coors inflated, those numbers will play at any field; he has become one of the premier outfielders in the game, and will command a huge contract when he becomes a free agent after the 2009 season. One concern for any team that signs him is that he won't be playing in Coors (assuming he doesn't resign with the Rockies, of course), where his home OBP is almost 90 points higher than on the road for his career, and his SLG is over 200 points higher.

Manning center field will be the Pirates' Nate McLouth who has been taking advantage of his first opportunity to play every day at 26. Although he cooled down after a hot start with a .214/.272/.350 line in June, he's come back strong in July with a .286/.340/.673. He's got 17 homers on the year and a .542 SLG.

Backing up these outfielders will be both of McLouth's mates, who feature strangely enough the best outfield trio, in Pittsburgh. Jason Bay is back to his old 2004-2006 self after what now appears to be simply a fluky drop off in 2007, while Xavier Nady continues to have a career season with what maybe an unsustainable .321 BA, which would be by far a career high - still, he should be rewarded for where he is now. Speaking of career seasons, former (and maybe future?) journeyman Ryan Ludwick has punched his ticket with 21 HRs and 23 doubles, leading to a fine .597 SLG.

Catcher:

No position features more young talent in the NL than catcher - where three young stars make the team.

Starting is Braves' backstop Brian McCann, an underlooked star, who is back at his 2006 numbers with an outstanding 27 2Bs and 18 HRs.

Backing up the backstop, are the Dodgers' Russell Martin and the Cubs' Geovany Soto (what a fun name). Martin is the OBP master of the three, taking 53 walks, which combined with his .294 average leads to a .394 OBP. Soto has a little more power with 16 homers and 24 doubles to go along with a still very solid .377 OBP.

Pitchers:

We'll go through our starters first.

The story of most of the first half was the Reds' representative Edinson Volquez. He's cooled off a bit from his hot start, but that's pretty much inevitable when you have ERAs under 2 for April and May. He is third in the league in strikeouts as well with 126.

Next is Arizona's new acquisition Danny Haren, who has actually been better than perpetual ace (and fellow all-star) Brandon Webb, leading the NL in WHIP with a .955 along with a league 2nd ERA+ 166.

Tim Lincecum is the Giants representative and a rare spot of hope for the terrible team (Why does Brian Sabean still have a job?). Sure, he's had a season high 3.60 ERA in July, but his league-leading 136 Ks and an outstanding first three months of work are enough.

Haren's rotation-mate Webb is next, continuing to be ace-worthy (even if Haren is pitching slightly better) with a third in league 131 innings (if he keeps it up, his third stright year in the top 3), and outstanding 112/33 K/BB ratio, and a 140 ERA+.

Cole Hamels is the second phillie to be unjustly excluded from the real team. He has an outstanding 126/34 K/BB ratio, good for third in the league, a great 1.023 WHIP, good for 2nd in the league, all in a league leading 142 innings.

Ben Sheets represents the Brewers with a strong 150 ERA+ and a 1.114 WHIP, and 2nd in the league in K/BB ratio. He's excellent when he pitches - health is as always the story with Ben Sheets - he hasn't had a 200 inning season since 2004.

Two Cubs make the starting rotation. The ace of the staff Carlos Zambrano, who is having a bit of a comeback season - while he's been good for all of the past few years, if he keeps this up it would be his best ERA since 2004. His lowering strikeout rate may be a bit of concern in the future, though.

Ryan Dempster makes the team after one of the more unlikely comebacks of recent years. He hadn't started a full season since 2003 with Cincy and hasn't had a season this good, well, ever. He has been a mediocre reliever the past few years. I have to imagine his hit rate will increase, but his K/BB rate has still been solid, and he's earned his trip.

Finishing off the starters is Johan Santana. Although his record may not show it and he hasn't been the best pitcher in his league, as he was over the past few years, his ERA has been good for fourth in the league, and WHIP good for 9th, along with 7th in strikeouts.

Now for the relievers. We're not going to be like Terry Francona's AL and pick as many relievers as starters. But we'll pick a couple (we being me).

Brad Lidge has come back out of purgatory in Houston to have the best season amongst NL closers, with an outstanding 55 strikeouts in 40 innings. Although 19 walks is too much, if you're giving up only 26 hits in 40 innings, you can get away with it.

Billy Wagner has definitely blown too many saves, but we'll give him the benefit of the doubt that it was bad luck since his .949 WHIP and 45/9 K/BB ratio. Hopefuly he won't let us down by blowing a lot more saves in the second half.

Jon Rauch is our Nationals representative. Major league baseball's tallest player has turned out an outstanding 1.014 WHIP and 43/7 K/BB ratio.

Our last closer is Kerry Wood who has done a fine job of fitting into the closer's role with 1.007 WHIP and 55 Ks in 44 innings.

There it is, my 2008 NL All-star team.

Movie I Should Have Seen Years Ago: The Breakfast Club

Finally saw it - I've essentially seen no brat pack movies, but we're out to change that. Anyway, some notes.

It's pretty good overall - I love movies that have one setting and a limited number of characters, so basically they just have to keep talking enough for something to change (like say Twelve Angry Men), so this movie gets points on that scale. If a movie is anywhere close to a situation where you can just limit the space, you might as well.

For the first half an hour most of the characters are pretty unlikable, but except for Judd Nelson, they're not insufferable - his character is just such a fucking jerk through most of the movie, and I know he has a difficult home life and all that, but really, there is just no excuse past a certain point. Several great different-people-bonding-together scenes, like the running back to the library scene, and the scene where they're all getting high, and the dancing scene, that would only be made better, as mentioned above by better music.

I was disappointed in the use of Don't You (Forget about Me). Sure, it's at the beginning and the end, but I was really hopeful for a climactic scene where everything is on the line, and all of a sudden the music starts - very uncreative. The soundtrack as a whole was kind of a let down as well - there were so many opportunities for huge definitive eighties soundtrack-moments which Breakfast Club eschewed in light of instrument music.

The romances at the end seem forced and completely unnecessary. Judd Nelson is pretty much a jerk for 3/4 of the movie, especially to Molly Ringwald and then out of nowhere they're together at the end, and Ally Sheedy is treated as a freak for 3/4 of the movie, and then suddenly she's made up by Molly Ringwald, and her and Emilio Estevez have an out of nowhere blossoming romance, both of which, especially the latter one had absolutely no signs or anything. Basically Judd is only interested in Ally after she changes her looks to the mainstream instead of being herself. Is this the behavior we want to encourage? Also, why of course is it that the nerdy guy is the only guy who ends out without someone? It just figures.

Edit: I accidentally switched up Judd Nelson and Emilio Estevez. Now corrected

I just watched Batman Begins for the second time
One of the things I noticed on this viewing is how many "repeat lines" there were. I don't really have a better name for them, but they're pretty much instances in which one character, say the villain, says one thing to, say the hero, at the beginning of the movie and then the hero repeats it back to the villain in a different inflection at the end of the movie. You see them in superhero movies especially, but throughout action movies.

Anyway, Batman Begins amazingly had at least 7 of them, by my count, though I may have missed some. Here they are in my pretty arbitrarily ranked order - please forgive me if my wording is not exact, as I'm writing these from memory after finishing the movie, although I'll try to look up what I can.

7. “But it's not who you are underneath...it's what you do that defines you.”

First spoken: By Rachel, to Bruce after she runs into him being a playboy around the city.
Repeated (as the slightly changed:
"It's not who I am underneath...but what I do that defines me.")
By Bruce, to Rachel after he helps her and the little boy get away from the inmates of Arkham Asylum

Review: This one's pretty lame, as is pretty much everything about Rachel - she's more trouble to Bruce than she's worth, and is the most boring character in the movie. Even this line lacks bite - there's no venom, or even warmth - it's main purpose is just to show Rachel that Bruce is Batman in a clever way (if this could be called clever, which is quite generous) without actually saying who he is.

6. "Haven't given up on me yet?

Never."

First said: Exchanged between Alfred and Bruce upon Bruce's return to Gotham from Princeton, when Bruce is simply determined to avenge his parents.

Repeated: (As: “You still haven't given up on me?

Never.”)

Again by Alfred and Bruce, this time after Wayne Manor is burned down by Ra's Al Ghul, and Alfred and Bruce escape to the Batcave (I assume that's what it's still called?)

Review: Another warm moment, developing the continual bond between Alfred and Bruce, and showing Alfred's continued faith in Bruce no matter what he deals with. It's also kind of boring at generic, but at least it comes at a point where Alfred has demonstrated his usefulness by saving Bruce from the fire and been a little bit of a badass by taking out Ra's Al Ghul's guard. Still, it lacks something.

5. Okay, this is a little bit of a stretch, but I think the reactions are those of a repeat line, so I'm going to put it in anyway. Also this one appears about four times if you follow my stretched line, but I'm going to pick the two that I think work best.

"Like your father, you lack the courage
to do all that is necessary."

First said: By Ra's Al Ghul to Bruce as he's about to burn down Wayne manor, with him in it.

Repeated: (as "Have you finally learned to do what is necessary? "

By R'as Al Ghul as he thinks Batman is about to kill him on the subway car (I know it's not really a subway because it's elevated, but that's what I'm going to call it)

Review: Well this loses points because it's really a stretch - but the necessary is the important part - and they use it a couple more times at the beginning of the movie. What would have really made this clutch is if Batman actually did kill him right after he said it, proving that he would do what was necessary. Batman kind of lamed out by not killing him there, and no, Batman, if you leave someone to a certain death when you caused the circumstances, yes, that is killing someone.

4. "And why do we fall?

So we can learn to pick ourselves up."

First said: Thomas Wayne to Bruce after little Bruce falls down the well at the beginning of the movie.

Repeated: (as "Why do we fall, sir?



So that we can learn to pick ourselves up."

As an exchange between Alfred and Bruce right before the repeat of #6, as they descend to the Batcave after the fire.

Review: Okay, this tugs the heart strings a little, and it gets due credit for that. Alfred has been Bruce's surrogate father, and he's reminding him of the wise fatherly advice he received so many years ago. It's a little badly needed inspiration for Bruce and reminds him to get himself in gear for the final encounter. Nothing biting, but we need some happy repeats.

3. "It's a bit technical. The key thing is...our company's future is secure."

First said: By Mr. Earle, the head of Wayne enterprises throughout most of the movie to Bruce at Bruce's big birthday bash.

Repeated: (as "Look, it's all a bit technical,
but the important thing...is that my company's future
is secure."

By Bruce to Mr. Earle at the end of the film after Earle finds out Bruce has bought up enough shares to control the company.

Review: Finally, a good spite line - we needed one of those - Mr. Earle has been an irritant the whole movie, not evil, but clearly representing evil corporate interests, and not the high-minded philanthropic idealism of Bruce's parents, and had his comeuppance coming for the entire movie. When Bruce reveals that Mr. Earle was no longer president, what fun would it not to be done in style, and while at it, poke fun at Mr. Earle's naivete towards Bruce's business acumen. Take that, asshole.

2. "Didn't you get the memo?"

First said: By Mr. Earle to Lucius Fox after an angry Earle, who had just found out his war-mongering product had been stolen, is peeved at Fox for really, no apparently reason, and fires him.

Repeated: By Fox after Earle walks in on a board meeting and sees Fox as president and realizes he is no longer in control of the company.

Review: I'm not exactly sure what memo Fox was supposed to get. Moreover, I'm not sure why Earle who clearly disliked Fox from day one, did not fire him years ago. Anyway, neither of these things make this second Earle comeuppance line any less sweet, another fuck you to Earle, and automatically a step higher than the other one because Morgan Freeman is involved.

1. "- You never did learn...to mind your surroundings"

First said: By Ra's Al Ghul to Bruce Wayne, after he knocks down Bruce right into a falling beam in Wayne Manor, which traps Bruce while the fire rages.

Repeated: (as "You never learned to mind your surroundings!")

By Batman to Ra's Al Ghul after he reveals to Ra's Al Ghul, that he doesn't plan to stop the train at all, but to destroy the tracks, sending the train off the edge.

Review: Now here's a damn fine line - it directly connects to actual actions, and it's Batman's big fuck you moment to Ra's Al Ghul - the student has become the master and all that jazz - Ra's Al Ghul thinks he has an unstoppable plan and that Batman is a mere peon, but guess what, Batman is one step ahead. Truly a classic repeat line.

Addendum: As I found a script to look at to the get the lines right, I noticed yet another one I had forgotten about - "Finders Keepers" - which is said by Rachel at the very very beginning of the movie when both Bruce and Rachel are kids and is repeated, in written form, on the birthday present of the arrowhead that Rachel gives to Bruce. Pretty lame, as is anything involved with Rachel but it bears mentioning - I bet I could find even more if I read closer, or invented lines.

Veronica Mars: Seasons 1-2

I really like this show. Unlike a show like The Wire where I can tell right away that I'll be interested, I had to be convinced by reading about this in a few places I trust, and in order to get some others to watch it, I had to convince them. It was definitely worth it, though.

Before I say anything else, I ought set up the premise in case people do not know. Anyway, Veronica lives in the posh town of Neptune, California which is starkly divided between extremely rich people and poor people, most of whom work for the rich, and this contrast can be seen on display at Neptune High, where the rich kids, or "09ers" (because of their zip code) are often profiting at the expense of poorer kids. Veronica is the daughter of Keith Mars, who used to be sheriff, but lost the job after he appeared to have bungled the case of the death of Lily Kane, Veronica's best friend, daughter of billionaire software mogul Jake Kane, and sister of Duncan Kane, who used to be Veronica's boyfriend. Keith accuses the parents, but can't find enough evidence, and after being booted from the sheriff's office, becomes the laughing stock of the town, and a private eye. Veronica loses her social status and becomes an outcast, while Veronica's mother can't take their fall in status and leaves them. So there you go. Now, about the show.

On first blush, Veronica Mars looks like it comes right out the Juno universe with it's smart, sassy, wit-packed and sharper-than-adults high school girl in a fictitious white-bread universe (Not to say I didn't like Juno, it's just that's the world it's in). Anyway, I suppose the most obvious difference in the outside is one, the actual presence of minorities in the show, and the idea of the class conflict in the high school, though even that is kind of just for show, since anyone's actual poorness is really not the subject of the show. A couple of more important things make it rise above from just being about a Juno-type.

First, this may sound minor, but really is a big plus for me. She's a step ahead of a lot of the kids, and many of the adults in the show, but not her dad. Her dad is every bit as smart and adept as her. We've all seen enough shows/movies where the kids are all smarter than the adults and parents are idiots and all that. Here, her dad is a great character who works with her, and sometimes even catches her out when she thinks she's smarter than him, and more than once helps get her out of a jam.

Second, the smart, clearly unreal, but very enjoyable dialogue is not simply granted to Veronica. Pretty much all of the man characters are granted a piece of the action. Logan gets many of the best lines, but Wallace gets his share, and Dick in the second season is absolutely hilarious. Again, if you want a gritty show about what it's like to grow up as a teenage, you're barking up the wrong tree, but at least all the characters are on the same level.

Just to some other comments about the show - almost every character becomes more likable as the show goes on. Logan seems like a total dick for the first couple of episodes, but becomes one of, if not the best character. Even the two characters who end up being the most evil characters have some great moments - the only character who never warmed on me at all was Sheriff Lamb.

The plotting of the show is also excellent in its combination of weekly storylines and season-long plots - the shows strikes an excellent balance, and each season has a great season-long mystery, throughout which the entire season, different suspects come up and are vetted, and the endings end with surprising, but not entirely unforeseen, or seeming to come out of totally left field, culprits. The show also strikes just the right balance between drama and comedy - there are extremely serious parts, but tons of levity as well - Logan's inspirational telephone messages are amazing - and as mentioned above Dick Casablancas entire character is pretty much a punchline. Veronica's exchanges with are dad are also fantastic, often consisting of him asking her, much to her dismay, "Who's your daddy?"

Anyway, to sum up - it's a smart teen sleuth show that is equal parts about the plot, and about the characters and dialogue and which teeters on the edge of being too clever for its own good, but doesn't go over the line. Watch it, at least the first two seasons. The third, I have yet to see and I hear worse things - but hopefully I'll see it relatively soon, and see what I think about that.

Time to review the National League portion of my preseason MLB predictions.

Again, the predictions can be found here.

NL East

Philadelphia Phillies - Predicted Record: 87-75 - Current Record: 47-39

Well, they're a couple gains ahead of the pace I had them at, and a couple places ahead in the standings, but even more stunning, they're still playing four games below their Pythagorean Record. Utley has played up to his now four years running MVP-candidate self, while Pat Burrell, always an underrated player because of his three true outcome skills, is playing out of his mind, slugging 100 points above his career average, a number which might fall, but the Phillies have room for gain in the weak performance of Ryan Howard, who while still walking and slugging, needs to up his batting average a bit above the .219 mark, because he simply can't take many more walks to up his OBP. Their starting pitching is still shaky however, with everyone outside of star Cole Hamels having lousy K/BB ratios and I wouldn't be surprised to see the ERAs of Kyle Kendrick and Adam Eaton sink further. However, they still have to be the division favorites from here, though I think I stand a fine chance of them finishing within a couple of games from my prediction.

Florida Marlins - Predicted Record: 67-95 - Current Record: 44-41

Another big whiff here. Having allowed more runs than they've scored, they seem good candidates to sink back under .500, but certainly not to accumulate 95 losses, which would require a 22-54 record from here on out. They're doing it with their lineup, where every hitter, aside from catcher Matt Treanor has been above average, led by Dan Uggla's unreal numbers, which are unlikely to stay this high, and Hanley Ramirez's, which are. They lead the league in HRs, but are third to last in OBP which could be trouble in a power drought. Still, if they hit HRs like they have been it may not matter. The pitching still spells trouble though with only Scott Olsen and Ricky Nolasco fairly reliable starters, and while Andrew Miller has improved greatly since April, he still walks too many batters to be successful long term. Ultimately, my prediction will prove off, but not by as much as it is now, as they'll likely recess to a bit below .500.

New York Mets - Predicted Record: 92-70 - Current Record: 42-43

Another big miss so far. While I may be a fan, I think it was far from crazy to thing what had been a fairly successful team, even with the collapse would be superior after losing almost nobody and gaining Johan Santana. I did think there would be a few problems, but may have underestimated the income. I thought Carlos Delgado would continue to decline, and he has, for the most part even worse than I thought, but he has improved greatly over the last month or so. I knew not to count on El Duque or Moises Alou, but I thought the Mets would have Alou for maybe half the games in the season, and not 15, as he's played so far. The Mets have been hurt by the lack of even a mediocre fifth starter, the underperforming Claudio Vargas and Nelson Figueroa have been replaced by a so far incredibly disappointing, but healthy, Pedro Martinez. All in all, the Mets still have a shot at the playoffs, as much as they've underperformed, but they're going to need Delgado to continue his hot streak, Ryan Church to stay healthy and Mike Pelfrey to continue the revelation he's undergone in the past month - I'd still say I'm going to be off at least a few one this one.

Atlanta Braves - Predicted Record: 89-73 - Current Record: 40-46

While I certainly didn't expect Mike Hampton to throw a pitch all season, I did not expect John Smoltz to miss the majority of the season as well, which has hurt the team a great deal. Still, the problem with the Braves so far has unexpectedly been the hitting; they're second in the league in runs allowed per game, but ninth in runs scored per game. They are significantly underplaying their Pythagorean record, by a tune of 6 games, largely attributable to their 4-21 record in one-run games. Tim Hudson has been outstanding predictably, as has Jair Jurrgens less so, and Brian McCann, Mark Teixeira, and most of all Chipper Jones. If Jeff Francouer plays even a little bit up to the breakout season many people expected the Braves could at least finish over .500, though unlikely up to the record I called for.

Washington Nationals - Predicted Record: 73-89 - Current Record: 34-53

Not sure why I predicted these guys would win more games, looking back, seeing how few real weapons they have. A couple reasons are that I thought Nick Johnson might stay healthy, that Austin Kearns would produce more than the OPS+ of 50 he's put up so far, and that Lastings Milledge might break out even a little bit. Their third-to-last runs allowed per game is almost as bad as their league worst runs scored per game, hurt by a largely disappointing performance from Shawn Hill and the injury to one of the few reliable Nationals over the last couple years, Chad Cordero. This doesn't seem like a situation likely to change this year at least, and GM Jeff Bowden has to be on his last legs. They may avoid the 100 losses mark barely, but if they do it won't be by much.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs - Predicted Record: 87-75 - Current Record: 51-35

Nice to get a position right, even if I severely underestimated the record so far. Everyone knew the Cubs would be good - they have a strong core on offense of Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, and Alfonso Soriano, and one of the most reliable #1 starters over the past few years in Carlos Zambrano. What we didn't know is that Ryan Theriot and Mark DeRosa would have OBPs of .388 and .378 respectively or that Ryan Dempster would have a 3.24 ERA as a starter with a respectable, but not amazing 93/43 K/BB ratio. The Cubs have been buoyed by strong performances from newcomers Kosuke Fukudome and Geovany Soto as well as Kerry Wood sliding cleanly into the closer's spot with a 53/9 K/BB ratio. Frankly, there's no reason the Cubs can't keep this up, so I'll get their position right, but probably be at least a few games low on their record.

St. Louis Cardinals - Predicted Record - 71-91 - Current Record: 49-38

Yet another mistake, and one that I didn't even see having a chance of coming true. We all knew Albert Pujols is one of the biggest superstars in the game, but how could anyone expect a 146 OPS+ from journeyman Ryan Ludwick, or above average performances from Kyle Lohse and Todd Wellemeyer? Yadier Molina has also put up average offensive numbers, which are like superstar numbers to him and Adam Wainwright has been as good as some thought he might be when he debuted a couple of years ago putting up a stellar ERA and a better than 3/1 K/BB ratio. I have a hard time believing they're going to continue to put up the kind of pitching numbers they have over the first half and take a playoff spot, but they've certainly achieved far above my predicted record, and may get a shot for the playoffs in spite of my predictions.

Milwaukee Brewers - Predicted Record: 84-78 - Current Record: 46-39

What I like to see, a record that, although a few games better, is reasonably within my prediction, and has a good chance to end up that way, especially since the Brewers heretofore have allowed more runs than they've scored. Rickie Weeks continues to be a major disappointment, and Bill Hall has been an unmitigated disaster, but strong performances out of young stars Ryan Braun and Corey Hart have kept them in the race, along with a so far healthy Ben Sheets. To keep this pace up, they'll need Sheets to stay healthy, and Manny Parra to keep up his performance, which seems unlikely unless he sharply cuts down on his walks. A breakout performance by any of their young stars, such as some more power from Prince Fielder would also help them along. I could easily see them finishing where I put them, and consider it even fairly likely.

Pittsburgh Pirates - Predicted Record: 65-97 - Current Record: 40-44

Another bad team that has far overperformed my prediction. They've done this in large part thanks to their outstanding outfield, featuring Jason Bay, who successfully came back from a down 2007 season, and Xavier Nady and Nate McLouth, who have had unprecedented success so far, and their catch Ryan Doumit who while healthy has had an unbelievable 160 OPS+. They've been hurt by an absolutely brutal starting staff on which only Zach Duke has been above average, and Ian Snell has been particularly disappointing possibly due to the arm trouble that's put him on the DL. They'll probably continue to play like the above average team they are, but I think there's a lot better chance they stand at 87-90 losses than 97.

Houston Astros - Predicted Record: 71-91 - Current Record - 40-46

Slightly underestimated these guys, likely to the career year of superstar Lance Berkman and, well, I'm not really sure why else. Wandy Rodriguez has been outstanding but his great year has been made up for by Roy Oswalt's down year, although Oswalt has pitched much better in the month of June. Carlos Lee continues to be one of the most consistent sluggers in the game, and former Marlin and Tiger Brian Moehler has been a pleasant surprise so far, while touted catcher of the future JR Towles has disappointed big time. This team is pretty much sitting where it belongs, and I could see it either gaining a couple of games, or losing a few more to fall within the realm of my prediction. One thing I need to add though is that the Astros continue to shoot themselves in the foot by leading off Michael Bourne and his simply abysmal .280 OBP.

Cincinnati Reds - Predicted Record - 77-85 - Current Record - 40-47

I'm well within the area of correct prediction here, and the Reds should be granted a few free games for having to deal with the utterly inept managing of Dusty Baker. The Reds have been stunned by the Cy Young-caliber pitching of Edinson Volquez, but have been disappointed so far by the early performances of Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey. They've been killed by granting Corey Patterson and his .219 OPS 192 ABs that could have gone to Jay Bruce, who has been up and down, but still on the whole strong, after his eventual call up. Adam Dunn is another one of those players like Carlos Lee who has been incredibly consistent (in a good way) from year to year, but if the Reds want to get better, a stronger performance from their rookie pitchers and Bronson Arroyo would help. I've got a halfway decent shot of hitting near my predicted record here.

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks - Predicted Record: 91-71 - Current Record: 43-43

This record looked too low for a while, and now looks too high, which probably means it stands at least a decent chance of being right on. Danny Haren has lived up to everything we expected from him, and Brandon Webb, although cooling off recently has made this possibly the best 1-2 starting pitching punch in baseball. They continue to be killed by the low OBPs on a couple of their young players, Stephen Drew and Chris Young, and the injuries and general come down from a career year from Eric Byrnes. Only Conor Jackson has truly lived up to his offensive billing so far, and the bullpen has been excellent. To reach my record and a spot in the playoffs, they could use improved performances from Randy Johnson and Micah Owings, but they have a good shot of at least shooting near my record, in that now putrid division.

LA Dodgers - Predicted Record: 87-75 - Current Record: 41-44

Simply by predicting this whole division to be good, I erred big time, and the Dodgers are just another example. Their culprit has clearly been the hitting - they're leading the league in runs allowed per game, with strong performances from Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley and Hiroki Kuroda, and some possible room for improvement from Brad Penny, who hasn't had a season this bad, well, ever. Rafael Furcal has played well over his career norms while healthy, which hasn't been for very long, and Russell Martin has been excellent, but the Andruw Jones signing has been an unmitigated disaster (second time I've used that term in this post I think) and Juan Pierre has dipped back down to his normally abysmal .327 OBP. A second half breakout from youngsters James Loney, Andre Ethier or James Loney would surely help them reach my prediction, which is unlikely but not crazy.

San Francisco Giants - Predicted Record: 69-93 - Current Record: 38-48

Well, they've got Tim Lincecum and an amazing third place standing in the NL West, even if that third place standing comes with a record 10 games under .500. Still on a pace to outdo my prediction, but I could see that easily changing, as some of their old guys (and there are many) could break down after putting up reasonable respectable years so far such as Rich Aurilia and Ray Durham. The strong performance of youngster Jonathan Sanchez has also been a major factor in their continuing to play ahead of my prediction, even though they've been starting the second worst offensive regular in Omar Vizquel, who is simply past his time offensively (if he ever really had a time offensively). Still, I think they'll probably beat my prediction by at least a few games, but maybe not too many if the teams in their division play better.

Colorado Rockies - Predicted Record: 89-73 - Current Record: 35-51

Two major blunders coming to end out the league; perhaps I should have ordered the divisions another way. Of course, missing ROY runner up Troy Tulowitzki has hurt dearly, and even when healthy he was awful. Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe have also underperformed their 2007 numbers, and Willy Taveras has killed the Rocks from the leadoff spot with a sub-.300 OBP. The real killer has been the pitching, where former ace Jeff Francis has stunk it up, and while Aaron Cook has had a very strong year, there hasn't been enough pitching to follow him. Ubaldo Jiminez is starting to play up to his label as a top prospect, and Rockies fans can only hope Franklin Morales starts to follow him. Ultimately, there's little chance the Rockies can reach my prediction, especially as they may trade Matt Holliday, so I'll just chalk this one up as a lost cause.

San Diego Padres - Predicted Record: 87-75 - Current Record: 33-53

I blew it again. There were plenty of signs that this team was too old, and simply didn't have enough offense to compete anymore and that their window was over, but I thought their stellar pitching would hold that off at least a little bit. This hasn't been helped by ace Jake Peavy's and Chirs Young's injuries, even though one of their replacement starters Josh Banks has been solid in limited duty. Adrian Gonzalez has single-handedly carried them on offense, and they had the bad luck to see the worst of Jim Edmonds before he got hot with the Cubs. Frankly, this is just another one of these lost causes as before. Sad.

What better time than the beginning of July and the mid-season point to do a team by team evaluation of how my preseason MLB standings predictions are doing. AL edition today, NL tomorrow.

My original predictions can be found here for quick viewing: http://thereisablogthatnevergoesout.blogspot.com/2008/03/its-been-too-long-but-id-have-to.html

Anyway, let's start with the AL East.

Tampa Bay Rays - Predicted Record: 79-83 - Current Record - 52-32

Oops. I did certainly think they'd do better than they'd ever done before in Rays or Devil Rays or whatever you want to call their history, but leading the division? I thought they were a year away with all their incredibly potent young players. And unlike some of the other teams that I made mistakes on - this isn't particularly fluky - they're playing just a couple games above their Pythagorean record, and no one on there team, with the possible exception of Dioner Navarro and some members of their bullpen, that are having strangely exceptional seasons considering their histories, and Carl Crawford is underperforming by a little bit. One of these situations where I didn't have the guts to predict too much too soon.

Boston Red Sox - Predicted Record: 97-65 - Current Record: 50-37

Okay, so this was probably the easiest pick, give or take, out of them all, and the one I was most relatively confident in. The Red Sox have rewarded mine and just about everybody else's conventional wisdom with a strong first, albeit, in second not first, but still in excellent position for a playoff spot. David Ortiz's injury may come back to bite them a little bit, but they are the deepest team in the majors, and are pretty much getting above average performances from everyone not named Varitek or Lugo.

New York Yankees - Predicted Record: 94-68 - Current Record: 45-40

I'm not quite willing to concede total defeat here, though I'd be thrilled if they do worse. 94 will be tough but not impossible, and just below that is certainly within reach. Few contending teams have been hurt as much by injuries as the Yankees, without injuries keeping out Jorge Posada, Hideki Matsui, Alex Rodriguez for significant amounts of time and now Chien-Ming Wang likely out until September. Still, the strong lineup here should generate plenty of runs, and Joba in the starting rotation is starting to pay off a bit - no reason to count them out yet.

Baltimore Orioles - Predicted Record: 63-99 - Current Record: 43-40

Wow. The Orioles playing over .500 baseball - didn't see that one coming. I still don't think that'll last - I would bet they'll be under .500 by the end of the season, but there's no way they're coming so far down to end up with 99 losses. Nick Markakis has become a real standout player, and Brian Roberts, Aubrey Huff and Luke Scott are also having strong years to lead the offense, while Jeremy Guthrie has been the only above average starting pitcher. Again, I don't see this lasting, but just the fact that they've played this well this far has got to be encouraging for Os fans.

Toronto Blue Jays - Predicted Record: 82-80 - Current Record: 41-44

Few teams have as stark differences between pitching and hitting as the Blue Jays, who are 2nd in runs allowed per game, and fourth to last in runs scored per game. They're still well within sight of my predicted record, though they would be vastly helped in reaching it if Alex Rios could remember how to it, and if Aaron Hill could recover from his concussion. AJ Burnett has struggled mightily, but Roy Halladay continues to be amongst the best in the league, and Shawn Marcum may be on pace to enter that class.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox - Predicted Record: 72-90 - Current Record: 49-35

Another one I, and most others, were way off on, and the Sox are actually playing three games behind their Pythagorean record, getting both huge hitting performances and leading the league in ERA. I expected big hitting performances from Dye and Thome, who have been good, Swisher and Konerko, who haven't been, but have been more than made up for by stellar performances of Carlos Quentin and Joe Crede. What I didn't expect was insanely good pitching performances from both the starting rotation, particularly from so-so prospect Jon Danks and once-was-big-prospect Gavin Floyd, as well as ridiculous comeback performances from Scott Linebrink and Octavio Dotel. I'm still doubtful that the pitching will entirely hold up, but even with somewhat of a drop, the White Sox will have an excellent shot at the playoffs and should finish far above my prediction.

Minnesota Twins - Predicted Record: 75-87 - Current Record: 47-38

Is it so crazy that I thought losing their best player and gaining a bunch of talent that wasn't truly major league ready would lose to more losses, and not less? I don't see this one holding up all season long, as they're playing three games over their Pythagorean record and I'm hesitant to believe that they're pitching can be even as mediocre as it's been. In addition, Alexi Casilla has a better OPS than he's ever had in the minors, although they still have reliable big bats in Morneau and Mauer. Still, it's going to be tough to finish as low as I've had them with this big start.

Detroit Tigers - Predicted Record - 94-68 - Current Record: 42-42

I definitely drank the Kool-Aid on this one, but finally they're starting to play like the team everyone thought they would be. It's going to be tough to get to 26 games over.500, but they could definitely make a playoff run in a division that has a lot of vulnerabilities. They've given up the second most runs per game in the league, which is definitely a problem, but ace Justin Verlander is starting to recover, posting a sub-3 ERA in June, and youngster (well, relatively) Armando Galarraga has pitched well, though with peripherals that make it unlikely to keep up his performance. Everyone except Pudge and Edgar Renteria is hitting now, though, so hopefully they won't make this pick a total embarassment.

Kansas City Royals - Predicted Record: 74-88 - Current Record: 38-47

Probably one of my most accurate predictions, I thought they were play better, but not by a ton. I see absolutely no reason why they will not continue about this pace through the end of the year, and end up with a relatively similar record to my prediction. The team still needs so many parts, though Alex Gordon has begun to show why he was so prized, and Zach Grienke has become the stud so many thought he would years ago. Tony Pena, while a very good defensive shortstop, is just too absolutely awful a hitter to justify playing time, and Ross Gload is likely the worst everyday first baseman in the majors.

Cleveland Indians - Predicted Record: 93-69 - Current Record: 37-48

These guys have got to improve. Basically they've been killed by two of their seemingly young stars, Travis Hafner, which many (myself included) assumed could not have been as bad as he was last year, and even if he was in a decline, it couldn't be this fast, this young, and by Victor Martinez, taking a very strange nose-dive to a sub-80 OPS+. Ryan Garko has also been awful, and no hitter has performed to expectations except for Grady Sizemore and an unexpectedly and unlikely to last strong performance for seven-year Indian Casey Blake. Their starting pitching has actually been very strong, capped by the unlikely comeback of Cliff Lee, and just broad down by a terrible bullpen. Their playing a crazy 6 games below their Pythagorean record though, so there's a good chance they'll improve at least a little bit.

AL West

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - Predicted Record: 94-68 - Current Record: 51-34

Another one of the records that are looking relatively prescient. The main problem is that the Angels are playing a ridiculous 7 games above their Pythagorean record, and the main reason for this is their utter inability to hit at all, leading to their having the 2nd lowest runs scored per game in the American league. To remedy this, they'll need better performances from, well, pretty much everyone, but particularly if they could get anything from their terrible contract with Gary Matthews Jr., and some more from Casey Kotchman and a healthy Howie Kendrick, since Garrett Anderson is probably finished. Their pitching has been strong and probably will continue to be, although John Lackey will not keep up this ridiculous 281 OPS+.

Oakland Athletics - Predicted Record: 69-93 - Current Record: 45-39

I haven't looked over all my records yet, but I'm going to go ahead and say this is my worst pick so far into the season(I'll be happy to correct if I find a worse one). This is one I should have seen coming at least to some extent - Billy Bean is a master of finding underutilized talent, and of course everyone knows the type of damage a healthy Rich Harden can do, though it can be nearly impossible to predict that he will be healthy. The main problem with the Athletics I think is keeping up their starting pitching - obviously it would shocking if Justin Duchscherer kept up his 1.91 ERA all year long, but even Dana Eveland and Greg Smith keeping up their above average performance with less than 2/1 K/BB ratios will be difficult. I have a feeling their record will finish somewhere between how they're doing now, and where I had them, but that gives them quite a bit of wiggle room.

Texas Rangers - Predicted Record: 75-87 - Current Record: 44-42

So there is a team more extreme than the Blue Jays - the Rangers, destroying the league in runs scored per game, and getting killed in runs allowed per game. They simply don't have an above average starting pitcher, while pretty much every hitter has been putting up exceptional numbers with Milton Bradley, Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler leading the pack. I do think Hamilton will come down a bit, and Bradley stands a good chance of either coming down or injured while their pitching does not improve, but I still think they'll end up above my guess, but I've got at least a shot at not being off by too much.

Seattle Mariners - Predicted Record: 84-78 - Current Record: 32-51

Wow. Another situation where I showed I had no balls. Now, unlike many other pundits, I did not think the Mariners were real playoff contenders, and I thought they vastly over performed last year, finishing with 88 wins, despite allowing more runs than they scored. However, I figured virtually the same offense, plus some of top prospect Jeff Clement, along with the far bigger improvement of Erik Bedard, and an improving Felix Hernandez, would at least be good to take them into more-runs-scored-than-allowed territory. How wrong I was. The Mariners are done, and will be trading anyone they can, thus essentially running up the losses, and making the prediction look even worse than it was in the first place.