Tuesday, April 21, 2009


AL Central

Now, a couple weeks into the season, but same difference.

I have no idea who's going to win this, and honestly, neither does anyone else. I, like probably, more than half of people, have the Indians, but that's not based so much on confidence in them as much as the glaring deficiencies of the other four teams.

I have no idea what to expect from the Indians starters - I think Cliff Lee will remain solid, though not approach last year, which of course, is not saying much. I am relatively doubtful of Fausto Carmona getting back to his 2007 form, though I honestly have not a clue what to expect from him at all - what I will predict I suppose is something between last year's disaster and 2007, but slightly on the worse side. And that's the certainty in the rotation. Left are Scott Lewis, Carl Pavano, and Anthony Reyes. Ouch, this pick does not sound so good. On the positive side, the lineup has some potential. Grady Sizemore is one of the best players in the entire American League, possesses, power, speed, patience at the plate, and plays an excellent defensive center field. If Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez produce at all, it will be improvements from last year, even if not up to their 2007 numbers. Jhonny Peralta, while far from a star, is one of the better offensive shortstops in the American League, and Mark DeRosa is a decent pick up for the team, though it seems as if he should be playing 2nd, Asdrubal Cabrera shortstop and Peralta third.

That said, you can only imagine the quality of the other teams in the division.

The White Sox are a year older for their aging bats - Paul Konerko, Jim Thome, Jermaine Dye and AJ Pierzinski. Carlos Quentin should hit well, but maybe not as well as last year. They have absolutely no viable option in center field (anybody missing Nick Swisher?) and their second base options are limited as well. From their pitching, it seems unlikely they will get repeat seasons from John Danks and Gavin Floyd, , though Denks is far more likely to continue than Floyd, and they lose Javier Vazquez.

The Twins can't hit. They have one of the best players in the majors Joe Mauer, though he's now injured, and an above average first baseman in Justin Morneau, and beside that they're absolutely brutal. Denard Span might have the potential, but aside from that they're lucky to have average hitters at their positons - Nick Punto at short is particularly wasteful. Their pitching staff features Twin specialties of young-guys-who-don't-throw-that-fast-but-don't-walk-a-lot-of-people-and-greatly-rely-on-the-team's-defense, like Nick Blackburn and Scott Baker, so I have a hard time believing the ceiling is all that high for this team - but they do have depth among these types of pitchers, so it shouldn't be that low either, which probably puts them , in this division at a just over .500 record.

The Tigers have tried everything they could to replicate their 2006 success - this time going away from on offensive approach by placing two putrid hitters but sparkling defenders on the left side with Adam Everett and shortstop and Brandon Inge at third base. The remaining guys can still hit okay - Miguel Cabrera is one of the best in the league, Placido Polanco is an above-average 2nd baseball, Curtis Granderson improved his walk rate significantly last year, and Magglio Ordonez, while never replicating that magic 2007 season can still hit. What it comes down to them is the pitching, and their utter lack of it. Crucial to the Tigers chances are Justin Verlander coming at least close to his 2007 form, which I think there remains a good chance of, but there is every likelihood Armando Galarraga will regress, though he hasn't yet in this early season. If they can get decent performances from stud prospect Rick Porcello and one-was-stud-prospect Edwin Jackson, and their bullpen to keep it together, they can compete in this division.

Ah, the Royals, their record has slowly improved for a couple years now, and unlike in the past, they have some nice parts - though for some reason general manager Dayton Moore insists on taking one step back for every two steps forward. Gil Meche turned out to be an utter steal - and Moore deserves credit for that, but Jose Guillen was an equally obvious bomb. Locking up ace Zach Greinke was an excellent move, but signing Kyle Farnsworth and Willie Bloomquist were mind-boggling. Even more remarkable is that at this point in the season, Farnsworth with 3 losses, has more than the rest of the team combined (2), and this is with one of the premier closers in the game in Joakim Soria sitting on the bench crying out to get 4 or 5 outs at the end of games. These Royals are better than they used to be but I don't see them crossing the .500 barrier just yet - their bottom of the rotation is too sickeningly awful - Sidney Ponson and Horacio Ramirez, and they don't get enough offense to make up for it. Oh, and once and maybe again potential star 3B Alex Gordon is out for half a season. If I was a Royals fan I would just be happy I don't have to see Tony Pena at the plate.

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