Monday, April 04, 2011

A (relatively) quick sum of why I picked who I picked in each division:

AL East:



The easiest pick for me - there's a reason everyone's picking the Red Sox - they replaced Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre with Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, and it would be an incredible stroke of bad luck if they had anywhere near as many injury problems this year as they did last year. I picked the Rays to tie in second the Yankees (and forced to pick, I'll have them winning the one-game playoff), which was a bit of a gamble - the Yankees certainly have the better offense, and will probably trade to improve their starting rotation, but right now the Rays starters are superior 1-5, and, well, you have to go out on a limb sometimes. I'm not sure Vlad Guerrero and Derrek Lee were worth signing for the Orioles, but they should be worth a couple of wins, enough, along with their young rotation to list them above the Blue Jays, who lose key contributor Vernon Wells (for good reason, but still, he was decent last year) and are relying on what could also be a very good young rotation, but have less offense.

Player from this division who I most want a jersey or shirt of: My boy Brian Matusz who closed last year in sterling fashion and is primed to sooner rather than later become the leader of the Orioles young rotation once he gets back from the DL.

AL Central:




I'm not all that convinced that the Tigers are better than the Twins and the White Sox - this was probably the hardest call for me of all the divisions. The Tigers have the division's best pitcher and position player, and while in baseball that doesn't necessarily mean all that much, it was a tiebreaker for me, especially since both Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera have been extremely durable so far in their careers. The Twins, if Justin Morneau stays healthy are every bit as good, but their rotation outside of the outstanding Francisco Liriano doesn't thrill me - it may be deeper than the Tigers', but has no second starter to rival Max Scherzer. I don't really have a good reason the White Sox can't win it either, though I generally have a policy against picking teams starting Juan Pierre, and Paul Konerko would be hard pressed to repeat his 2010. Between the Indians and Royals, well, they each have a couple of parts to watch, and for Royals fans in particular, Mike Moustakas should be up sometime soon with any luck.

Player from this division who I most want a jersey or shirt of: I already have a Verlander, which I found for about three dollars, next, I think I'd like a Shin-Soo Choo jersey - already the best Korean position player ever (Sorry, Hee Seop Choi), and one of the most underrated players in the majors over the past couple of years.

AL West:



The Rangers don't have Cliff Lee, sure, but they were probably going to win the division without him last year anyway. I don't love them so much, and the possibility of half their best hitters getting hurt - the Kinslers, Cruzs, and Hamiltons, and not expecting much from tradition power position first base with Mitch Moreland. That said, I don't like any of the rest of the teams any more - the As have the potential for a great starting staff with Brett Anderson, Travor Cahill, Dallas Braden and Gio Gonzalez, but have absolutely no hitting behind it. In terms of the Angels, Dan Haren's great, Jerrod Weaver is good, but I'm not sure he can duplicate last season, and I don't have as much faith in the rest of the starting pitching as well as the potentially horrendous hitting infield until Kendry Morales gets back. The Mariners, well, they get to have King Felix Hernandez, and really, how much more can one team ask for.

Player from this division who I most want a jersey or shirt of: I have been searching for a reasonably priced Felix jersey for years, so that goes without saying, but otherwise a Brett Anderson Athletics jersey would be great, partly because he's a left-handed starter on the verge of being a really good pitcher if he can stay healthy, but also because I can then make all sorts of Suede references which almost no Americans will get (ie. He's "so young," he's one of the "beautiful ones," he's "animal nitrate"...).

NL East:




Second easiest division pick, though here, I actually think I'd take the Braves over the Phillies before I'd take the Yankees or Rays over the BoSox. We all know why the Phillies are first - their absolutely spectacular first four members of their starting rotation. However, Chase Utley's out until who knows when, and just about every other key member of their offense is on the decline. The Braves have a very good rotation, albeit not as good, but more potential for growth on offense, with a hopefully healthy all year Jason Heyward, Dan Uggla at 2nd, and a possible comeback season for Chipper Jones. The Marlins have a fierce young rotation of their own, but one that hasn't been able to consistently throw the amount of innings they'll need from it to compete, though the team will be aided by full seasons of Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton. Sports Illustrated had the Mets finishing behind the Nationals, which, biased Met fan that I am, I just don't see - while the Mets pitching has a chance to be wretched, their offense has a chance to be pretty good, and the fact that the Nationals are starting Rick Ankiel everyday certainly does not bode well for them.

Player from this division who I most want a jersey or shirt of: I have a Beltran shirt, and Santana and Beltran jerseys currently. If it were ever acceptable for a Mets fan to own a Braves jersey (though, compared to even five years ago, it's much closer - if you could go back in time to 2004 and tell a Mets fan that he or she would hate the Phillies ten times more than the Braves, he or she would never have believed you) I'd love a Tommy Hanson - I think he will be a bona fide ace sooner rather than later, and I wouldn't mind a Ryan Zimmerman either, another underrated star.

NL Central:




I admit I probably went with my heart a little bit, rooting for the Brewers over the Cards and Reds, but I think there's justification for it - the Brewers, at the expense of a real shortstop, which I'll admit is troubling, traded for two top notch starters who have plied their trades for their careers in the more difficult American League, and should find things easier in the National. That, along with hopefully another healthy Rickie Weeks season and the rest of the Brewers offense could certainly do the trick. I don't think the Reds were any fluke - I think they'll do just about the same as they did last year, but that the Brewers, with their massive starting pitching improvement will inch ahead - a big feat, I admit, but within the realm of possibility, considering just how bad the starters were last year. The Cardinals still have an excellent chance as well with Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and the rapidly improving Colby Rasmus, but I'm not sold, and call me a fool, I know, on Dave Duncan getting the rotation to not miss Adam Wainwright. The Cubs could actually be decent, and it could be fun to watch if Carlos Zambrano can have follow his hot streak at the end of last year, and the Pirates and Astros can not be decent, but at least the Pirates have some fun hitters, while the Astros have...can Michael Bourne lead the league in steals?

Player from this division who I most want a jersey or shirt of: Rickie Weeks, for sure. I need to get one, or best of all an old school Brewers jersey of his.

NL West:



I picked the Giants to repeat because of their starting pitching along with improvements at shortstop, third base (Sandoval can't be that bad again) and a full season of Posey, but it all rests on the starters staying healthy. The Rockies have likely the division's best player in Troy Tulowitzki, and a very solid rotation, but will need some increased contributions from some of the guys in the lineup (Ian Stewart? Dexter Fowler?) to take the division. The Dodgers need a come back season from Matt Kemp, which I think they will get, but they also need some offense out of some other positions, which I'm not sure they will. The Padres were a great story last year, but pretty much traded their best player, Adrian Gonzalez, over the offseason, for good reason, but still, everything kind of went right for them, and I can't see that happening again. The Diamondbacks, well, they got, uh, Joe Saunders last year. I do think Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson could emerge as quite good pitchers though.

Player from this division who I most want a jersey or shirt of: Clayton Kershaw. He's a lefty, and he's incredibly fun to watch pitch.

No comments: