Monday, October 02, 2006

So - the other motivation for getting this done by today was that so I could put to record my predictions for this year's baseball playoffs. I will probably regret this when these forecasts go awry, but that's part of the fun I suppose.

Yankees v. Detroit

Well, most likely the biggest mismatch of the playoffs. I will be furiously supporting the Tigers in their first postseason action since 1987, but their young pitching (though average age is still probably above thirty due to the geriatric Kenny Rogers and Todd Jones) will have more than they can likely handle in a Yankees line up in which the 9th place hitter, Robinson "Robby" Cano hit .340 this season. Not to mention the top two of the Yankee rotation, Chien-Ming Wang and Mike Mussina are coming off quality seasons, meaning that even one of the Yankees key weaknesses, the bottom of their rotation won't be a factor. In regard to the bullpen, the Yanks will do anything in takes to get it to Rivera, as messy as that could be, but might not matter if they're up by 7 runs. Detroit has to get itself together big time. Is it possible? Anything's possible. Is it likely? Not really.

Yanks in Three

Oakland v. Twins

This might as well be a one word review: Santana. That's what really matters here. Sure, the Athletics rotation has a lot more depth, especially if Rich Harden is as good and healthy as he looked in the three inning sneak preview he has a week or so ago. Dan Haren's there, and Esteban Loaiza, after making us all question Billy Beane's judgment, has been lights out in August and September. Unfortunately, they can't hit. Sure, they've got as a candidate for comeback player of the year as any with Frank Thomas, who no one would predicted would come up with 39 home runs, and Nick Swisher, who put up a solid if not spectacular year, with a lot of walks and a lot more strike outs and a solid .864 to boot. After that, though, the cubbard's empty. Eric Chavez had the third most RBIs on the team after those two guys with 72 and he hit a measely .241. At least the Twins have some hitters to back up Santana, with a couple of MVP candidates in Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer, and Torii Hunter after returning from injury has been red hot, hitting a career high 31 home runs on the season. If the Twins can get anything from Boof Bonser and Brad Radke, they should be able to get past the As.

Twins in Five

Mets vs. Dodgers

The Mets have been the class of the league all year, but have struggled of late, while the Dodgers have turned in on, held back only by the Padres concurrent hot streak to keep from the West title. The Mets have hands down the best line up in the league, including three 100 RBI sluggers in Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and David Wright and a spark a top their line up in Jose Reyes, who led the majors with 64 stolen bases, and is a threat and a distraction everytime he gets to first base. Even the old retread Jose Valentin had 18 dingers. The trouble there is in the rotation which has no more Pedro, and sees a mediocre Steve Trachsel starting Game 3. The Dodgers line up is solid as well, if not up the the Mets' standard, with a couple of oft-injured players coming up big in Nomar Garciaparra and battery man JD Drew and a couple of young kids in Andre Either and Russell Martin. Their rotation is good with Derek Lowe, Greg Maddux, Chih-Hong Kuo and Brad Penny, but I'm not sold that it can shut down the explosive Mets.

Mets in 4

Padres v. Cardinals

The Cardinals have collapsed more than the Tigers down the stretch, nearly blowing a double digit lead and making the last game count. Manager Tony LaRussa smartly held ace Chris Carpenter out for Game 1 of the playoffs; two starts for him is the only way the Cardinals make it out of this series, with nothing much else out of their starters with Anthony Reyes and Jeff Weaver sporting ERAs over 5, and a mediocre Jeff Suppan as their second best option. Their line up is almost a one-man show as well, with Albert Pujols doing it all by himself. Jim Edmonds is injured and may not play, and Scott Rolen has slowed down after having a strong comeback year for the first four months. The Padres sport a combonation of youth and experience in their rotation with young studs Chris Young and Jake Peavy and time tested vet David Wells, and a fairly weak line up themselves with Brian Giles and Mike Cameron tied to lead the team with 83 RBIs.

Padres in 5

No comments: