Well, all I seem to post about these days is predictions, so why should this be any exception?

I suppose I'll pick some Oscar races, for better or for worse.

Best Picture:
Strike Little Miss Sunshine - too small of a movie, a comedy and a little too quirky for Oscar
The Queen - I think this is a little bit too quaint and foreign, and Helen Mirren near definitely winning the Best Actress is not enough
Letters from Iwo Jima - this is a possibility, but I don't see a film entirely spoken in Japanese winning - lots of critical fanfare, but not enough commercially I don't think for this to take off, though I wouldn't rule it out entirely - Oscars love Clint of late

That leaves I think the biggest two contenders, Babel and the Departed
Both have a decent shot - Babel winning the Golden Globe, though that's not necessarily worth all that much -
My deciding factor will be that since I think Martin Scorsese will get his long awaited Academy Award, and the Best Picture is more often than not linked with Best Director.

The choice: The Departed

Best Director:

I feel like the Academy Awards have been waiting for a chance to finally make up for past wrongs and hand Marty his statue. I was a bit surprised that they passed him up on Gangs of New York, and then again with The Aviator. Third time (in the 2000s) I think will be the charm. His biggest competitor is Clint, but they let him win last time he faced off against Scorsese, I think they'll even the score.

Best Actor/Actress:

These are the easiest categories to predict - as long as I go with the prevailing logic, and I will - Helen Mirren for The Queen and Forest Whitaker for Last King of Scotland.
I could go on a long explanation about how much Oscar loves portrayals of real people, or how these particular performances fit the mold - but the heapings of praise and awards these two have recieved nearly unanomously so far should be more than enough.

Best Supporting Actress:

I'm going to take Jennifer Hudson - people loved her.

Okay, I've gotta go, quick picks (less words than the last one even - well, maybe not that few)

Best Supporting Actor:

I have no fucking clue - I'll take Mark Wahlberg, becuase I love his recent output.

Original Screenplay:
Babel

Adopted Screenplay:
The Departed

Okay, we'll see how I do.